Finding the 12th trick
Posted: 21 Aug 2022, 21:17
This deal from yesterday's Coffs Harbour club game has multiple points of interest.
Matchpoints, board 13, North deals, all vulnerable.
All of the six auctions ended in a notrump contract by North. Four in 6NT, one in 7NT, one in 3NT. In all cases East led a heart; two fours, three sixes, one clever nine. The 6NT declarer getting the ♥9 lead took 13 tricks. The 7NT declarer took 12 tricks. The rest took 11.
My lead would probably be an unfortunate ♥Q. This article supports that choice. East's problem is to find a lead that is least likely to give away a trick, which is not at all obvious; a spade or diamond lead might give away the position of partner's Queen. The ♥Q loses only if South holds three or more including the 10 plus Ace or King. A low heart loses when North has the 10, or when South has the 10 and partner does not have the 8.
My second choice, the ♦10, would also work poorly because it advertises that partner has the Jack, making declarer's third-round finesse obvious.
On a low heart lead, from declarer's point of view it does not seem right to insert dummy's 10; West might easily have something like Qx(x) or Jx(x). So the first trick is likely to be 6 - 5 - 8 - K.
Then what? An early club finesse seems normal, followed by hoping that spades or diamonds break 3-3. As the cards lie declarer will notice the drop of East's 10 and 9 of diamonds and may decide to finesse the 8; that applies a variation of the restricted choice principle and is about 75% likely to be right.
But also, look what happens if declarer ducks a round of hearts and then cashes the remaining hearts and clubs. West is squeezed in spades and diamonds, and guessing is eliminated.
Matchpoints, board 13, North deals, all vulnerable.
♠ K63
♥ K73
♦ AQ86
♣ A72
♥ K73
♦ AQ86
♣ A72
♠ J1084
♥ 82
♦ J532
♣ 1053
♥ 82
♦ J532
♣ 1053
♠ 75
♥ QJ964
♦ 109
♣ Q964
♥ QJ964
♦ 109
♣ Q964
♠ AQ92
♥ A105
♦ K74
♣ KJ8
♥ A105
♦ K74
♣ KJ8
All of the six auctions ended in a notrump contract by North. Four in 6NT, one in 7NT, one in 3NT. In all cases East led a heart; two fours, three sixes, one clever nine. The 6NT declarer getting the ♥9 lead took 13 tricks. The 7NT declarer took 12 tricks. The rest took 11.
My lead would probably be an unfortunate ♥Q. This article supports that choice. East's problem is to find a lead that is least likely to give away a trick, which is not at all obvious; a spade or diamond lead might give away the position of partner's Queen. The ♥Q loses only if South holds three or more including the 10 plus Ace or King. A low heart loses when North has the 10, or when South has the 10 and partner does not have the 8.
My second choice, the ♦10, would also work poorly because it advertises that partner has the Jack, making declarer's third-round finesse obvious.
On a low heart lead, from declarer's point of view it does not seem right to insert dummy's 10; West might easily have something like Qx(x) or Jx(x). So the first trick is likely to be 6 - 5 - 8 - K.
Then what? An early club finesse seems normal, followed by hoping that spades or diamonds break 3-3. As the cards lie declarer will notice the drop of East's 10 and 9 of diamonds and may decide to finesse the 8; that applies a variation of the restricted choice principle and is about 75% likely to be right.
But also, look what happens if declarer ducks a round of hearts and then cashes the remaining hearts and clubs. West is squeezed in spades and diamonds, and guessing is eliminated.