Finding the 12th trick

Questions and talk about interesting deals and situations.
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rod
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Finding the 12th trick

Post by rod »

This deal from yesterday's Coffs Harbour club game has multiple points of interest.

Matchpoints, board 13, North deals, all vulnerable.

♠ K63
K73
AQ86
♣ A72

♠ J1084
82
J532
♣ 1053
♠ 75
QJ964
109
♣ Q964

♠ AQ92
A105
K74
♣ KJ8


All of the six auctions ended in a notrump contract by North. Four in 6NT, one in 7NT, one in 3NT. In all cases East led a heart; two fours, three sixes, one clever nine. The 6NT declarer getting the 9 lead took 13 tricks. The 7NT declarer took 12 tricks. The rest took 11.

My lead would probably be an unfortunate Q. This article supports that choice. East's problem is to find a lead that is least likely to give away a trick, which is not at all obvious; a spade or diamond lead might give away the position of partner's Queen. The Q loses only if South holds three or more including the 10 plus Ace or King. A low heart loses when North has the 10, or when South has the 10 and partner does not have the 8.

My second choice, the 10, would also work poorly because it advertises that partner has the Jack, making declarer's third-round finesse obvious.

On a low heart lead, from declarer's point of view it does not seem right to insert dummy's 10; West might easily have something like Qx(x) or Jx(x). So the first trick is likely to be 6 - 5 - 8 - K.

Then what? An early club finesse seems normal, followed by hoping that spades or diamonds break 3-3. As the cards lie declarer will notice the drop of East's 10 and 9 of diamonds and may decide to finesse the 8; that applies a variation of the restricted choice principle and is about 75% likely to be right.

But also, look what happens if declarer ducks a round of hearts and then cashes the remaining hearts and clubs. West is squeezed in spades and diamonds, and guessing is eliminated.
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